Famed North Korea analyst Andrei Lankov has an interesting analysis of the events that unfolded on the Korean peninsula in 2010, and what this may lead to in the new year. In a nutshell: in response to a more hard line stance from the US and South Korea, North Korea has spent the last 3 years manufacturing hostility on the Korea peninsula. A ramped up nuclear programme complete with detonation tests, the sinking of the Cheonan in March 2010 and the artillery shelling of Yeonpyeong Island this past November are all major events aimed at getting the US/SK to warm up to a return to diplomatic discussions. These talks historically result in the North receiving food and construction supplies from their enemies – their primary survival strategy.
However, this strategy didn’t work this time. The US is still not willing to negotiate, and the South has demonstrated that they can enact elaborate military exercises without reprisal from the DPRK (despite countless threats of war if they proceeded). As war would likely quickly devastate either side, North Korea has backed down from its threats, perhaps to execute a counter-offensive at a time of its own choosing. Relations with China remain stable, but aid from their only real ally may not be enough to boost the economy enough to bolster support for future president Kim Jong-Un. 2011 may be the year North Korea really pushes the envelope; a potential third nuclear test fire, development of intercontinental ballistic missiles, and border skirmishes are all possibilities to increase the stakes in a calculated (and perhaps desperate) attempt to get everyone back around the negotiation table.
Source: Asia Times Online
